A key southwest Washington congressional race that could help determine control of the U.S. House has shifted in Democrats’ favor, according to the Cook Political Report.
The influential nonpartisan election forecaster moved Washington state’s 3rd Congressional District race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” on Friday — one of 18 House races that shifted, all in Democrats’ direction.
The Cook Report said the changes improved Democrats’ prospects of capturing the House, projecting the party would gain nine to 19 seats, enough to give them the majority.
Several forecasters had previously rated the Washington race between two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Trump-endorsed Republican challenger state Sen. John Braun as a “toss up,” reflecting the district’s previous Republican tilt, Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 victories there and Gluesenkamp Perez’s history of close elections.
The district covers southwest Washington, including Vancouver and all of Clark County as well as other mostly rural communities.
In the August primary, Gluesenkamp Perez finished second behind Braun. It’s the first time she has entered a November general election after trailing a GOP opponent since flipping the district blue in 2022. (Washington uses a top-two primary, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to November regardless of party)
Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign has raised more than three times as much money as Braun’s, $6.3 million to nearly $2 million in this election cycle through mid-July, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Last month, a Trump-backed PAC reserved $1.7 million in ad time in the district, part of a campaign targeting battleground House and Senate districts.
On Wednesday, Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun faced off in their first televised debate hosted by KOIN News.
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