After a few months of relative quiet, last week saw geomagnetic activity that made the northern lights visible farther south than usual. That comes after a summer filled with chances to see the aurora in much of the northern U.S.
The uptick in activity last year was related to the solar maximum, the peak of the 11-year cycle, over the course of which the sun’s magnetic activity rises and falls.
But will Washingtonians have more opportunities to see the northern lights as this summer gets going, or was last week’s geomagnetic activity just a fluke? Here’s what to know.
Solar maximum and the northern lights
According to Shawn Dahl, service coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the solar maximum is likely still going on, although it’s impossible to know the exact end date until after the fact.
“Solar Cycle 25, which is the one we are in, continues to press along. We are currently in the maximum, although we don’t know if we’ve had the peak or have yet to have the peak, that’ll be determined later based off the observational evidence,” Dahl said. “But it really doesn’t matter, because solar maximum, once you’re in there, it takes a little while to come down.”
The maximum doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a steady stream of aurora viewing opportunities, even if activity is higher than normal, according to Dahl.
“It’s a kind of a roller coaster ride through maximum,” Dahl said. “So you can have weeks to months without any significant activity, and then all of a sudden some stuff takes place. Case in point, last week hadn’t had anything significant in over a month that day, and then all of a sudden, an eruption in the sun happens and then we have a G4 storm.”
But even if the geomagnetic activity is sporadic, the rest of this year is expected to have a better-than-normal chance of aurora viewing from northern U.S. states.
“All of this year, even into 2026, we have higher chances than usual for some pretty notable space weather activity,” Dahl said. “We don’t have to be at the peak, because some of the bigger storms – as a matter of fact, the previous solar cycle, one of the biggest solar flare we had, was two years after the peak.”
Other factors for seeing northern lights from WA
Another factor, and possible boon to the chances of seeing the northern lights from Washington this year, is that coronal holes have started to appear in the sun, according to Dahl.
“That’s a feature that starts to become more prevalent as you start coming down from solar maximum, although they can… That’s what allows these high speed streams, as we call them, to depart the sun,” Dahl said. “So that’s basically solar wind at faster speeds, and that can interact with Earth’s magnetic barrier and cause geomagnetic storms.”
Dahl expects the coronal holes to grow as we get away from the peak of this solar cycle.
“Coronal holes almost always begin to get larger,” Dahl said. “I remember last solar cycle, as we started experiencing the coronal holes, some of them were extremely large and would take up a large chunk of the sun facing Earth. Some of them had some pretty pronounced effects here.”
Lastly, Dahl said that there’s a chance we see an uptick in activity in the sun’s northern hemisphere, since most of the recent activity has come from the southern part of the sun and the two often see their magnetic activity peak together.
“A lot of the major activity last year, and even some this year so far, have been happening in the southern hemisphere of the sun,” Dahl said. “Sometimes during a solar maximum, there can be a double peak. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but we’re still anticipating to see the northern hemisphere of the sun do a little bit more.”
While there are many factors working in favor of Washington aurora viewing this year, it can be difficult to predict solar magnetic activity in advance. You can check NOAA’s experimental aurora dashboard for short-term aurora forecasts.
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