Washingtonians, already familiar with high pump prices, could soon be paying even more for gas, as global oil supply chains face potentially prolonged disruptions due to the war raging in the Middle East.
Prices for crude oil produced in the U.S. and abroad rose on Monday, an indication that consumers may soon feel the pinch at the pump.
Production and transport of oil from the Persian Gulf was largely halted as Iran retaliated for the U.S. and Israeli attacks by targeting refineries and tankers in the region.
On Monday, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a critical shipping route through which 20% of the world's oil supply flows.
The ramifications of those actions is likely to be felt as far away as the Pacific Northwest, despite the fact that the region gets most of its gasoline from U.S. and Canadian sources.
If the pot of oil available on the world market shrinks and demand stays the same, the price will go up," said Darrin Magee, director of the Institute for Energy Studies at Western Washington University.
Crude oil is a resource that gets converted into petroleum products like gasoline. That means price spikes could affect the wider economy, driving up the cost of fuel, as well as other goods and services.
But the extent to which the war in Middle East will affect consumers depends on whether the conflict is a temporary shock or a permanent disruption, said Thomas Gilbert, associate professor of finance and business economics at the UW Foster School of Business.
"The oil market is very agile in general," he said, citing supply chain adaptations that were eventually made in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the coming weeks, the U.S. and Canada could ramp up crude oil production, for instance.
If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is temporary, then energy prices are likely to stabilize over time. However, a longer closure could portend more serious consequences. But it's impossible to predict right now which of those scenarios will bear out, Gilbert said.
President Donald Trump on Monday said that strikes could continues for "four to five weeks," or longer.
The mere possibility of higher prices is unwelcome news for the inflation-weary.
Consumers across the country have been worn down by five years of stubborn inflation. In the area that includes Seattle, Tacoma and Bellevue, inflation measured 3.1% for the year ending last December, not accounting for seasonal adjustment. That's about a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Rising fuel costs in particular have contributed to the region's rising cost of living. The price of all types of gasoline in the Seattle area increased 2.9% over the 12-month period ending December. By contrast, on the national scale, the price of all types of gasoline actually fell by 3.4% in the same window.
As of Monday, the per-gallon national average retail price of regular gas was $2.997, according to AAA's Gas Prices tracker. In Washington, it was $4.369 — 45% higher. That made Washington the state with the third-highest average gas price after California and Hawaiʻi. In the Seattle, Bellevue and Everett area, it was even higher at $4.585.
There are plenty of factors that contribute to high gas prices in Washington, said James McCafferty, a director of Western Washington University's Center for Economic and Business Research. That includes state fuel taxes, high labor costs and geographic isolation.
"It increases the cost of production because of all of these externalities," McCafferty said.
The longer the war extends, the higher the risk of inflation due to disruptions in the oil markets. That could go on to impact the cost of food and other consumers goods.
"The reality is: If you're on a farm, you use diesel," McCafferty said. "You're going to use petroleum products in the production of almost anything manufacturing-wise.
On Monday, markets started the day off low, but gradually rebounded and closed mostly flat.
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