Fewer Washingtonians have been vaccinated against the flu and COVID-19 so far this season than at this point in the last three years, according to state health data.
As of this week, providers had administered about 22% fewer doses of the COVID vaccine — a little over 1 million shots — compared to the first week of December in 2024, according to the state Department of Health. At this point in the season last year and the year before, almost 1.3 million COVID doses had gone into arms; by this time in 2022, the state had given more than 2 million shots.
About 6% fewer flu doses had been administered as of this week, which totals about 1.9 million shots, compared to nearly 2 million by Dec. 6 last year.
It’s too soon to know the reasons for the dropoff, or if the trend will last. Maybe more people will seek protection against respiratory viruses as holiday travel picks up and to prepare for large gatherings. But health care providers fear the national discourse around vaccines that’s intensified in the last few months is already leading to consequences — some that could result in more disease, sickness and death this winter.
“I don’t know anyone who isn’t worried,” said Dr. Frank Bell, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Providence Swedish. “Every year, it’s a grind to get the message out. And for obvious reasons this year, it’s harder than ever before.”
Even before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed its language around COVID vaccines in October — encouraging Americans to make their own decisions rather than issuing broad recommendations — it was clear demand for updated versions of the shots was waning.
Fewer and fewer Washingtonians have sought new COVID vaccines the last three years, with the number of people receiving the shot dropping about 8 percentage points since 2022. Last season, about 19% of residents over 6 months, or about 1.4 million people, got an updated shot.
And this year, new CDC guidelines around COVID shots introduced a wave of challenges in the fall, resulting in delays in federal vaccine ordering and shipments, and confusion around eligibility among pharmacies and patients. In Washington state, a standing order allows physicians, nurses, pharmacists and other health practitioners to deliver the COVID vaccine to anyone 6 months and older without a prescription, as they had before the change in federal recommendations.
Still, some Washingtonians seeking COVID immunization in September reported being unable to schedule appointments or being turned away from pharmacies after being told they were ineligible.
Most issues appear to have been resolved. The CDC opened public vaccine-ordering in October, which means the state Department of Health could start to request COVID shots for its childhood and adult vaccination programs, which provide immunizations for children and adults without insurance.
“At this point, it has smoothed out,” said Janel Jorgenson, who manages vaccine orders at the health department’s Office of Immunization. “If you want a COVID vaccine, you should be able to obtain one anywhere in Washington without any hurdles.”
But the state’s most recent COVID vaccine figures show the last few months of obstacles and confusing messaging might already be resulting in impacts.
“To say no one needs the COVID vaccine unless you’re 65 or about to die — that’s a hard message to counter,” Bell said.
Major professional medical organizations in the U.S., including the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Academy of Family Physicians, continue to recommend people 6 months and older receive updated COVID vaccines to prevent severe disease and death.
The West Coast Health Alliance, a multistate public health coalition that includes Washington, also encourages most people to get vaccinated against COVID every year. With access to vaccines and medication, the virus has become much less deadly in the last five years.
As of April, COVID had killed about 18,000 people in Washington since February 2020. More than 1.2 million Americans have died nationwide, and more than 7 million globally.
Over 500 flu deaths last season
Bell is perhaps even more concerned about the state’s slow uptake of flu vaccines.
Last winter brought a particularly bad flu season, with the highest overall flu hospitalization rate the country had seen in 15 years. The CDC reported in April that more than 200 children died from the flu last season.
In Washington, epidemiologists counted more than 500 flu deaths last season, mainly among those 65 and older. The state’s previous deadliest flu season was in 2017-2018, when 296 people died.
While this year’s flu season has had a slow start in the U.S., health providers fret that some countries, like England and Japan, already have reported early outbreaks.
We are anticipating a challenging flu season again this year and continue to monitor COVID-19 cases," said Dr. Francis Mercado, associate chief medical officer for medical specialties at Virginia Mason Franciscan Health.
Jenny Arnold, CEO of the Washington State Pharmacy Association, agreed that many pharmacies reported a rush for COVID and flu shots early in the season, but that "demand dropped off faster than in previous years."
Requests vary around the state, said Arnold, who holds a doctor of pharmacy degree. While some pharmacies are still pretty booked up with appointments, she noted demand in more conservative counties is "nonexistent."
"It seems like those that are supporters of vaccines wanted to ensure they received their vaccine, while others have been able to point to the national discussion as reasons to not get vaccinated," Arnold said.
A Department of Health spokesperson said weekly vaccine administration for COVID and flu shots peaked in the second week of October and has mostly been steadily decreasing since then — with an exception the week after Thanksgiving. However, it's typical for vaccine administration numbers to follow a curve, the spokesperson wrote in an email.
Although vaccine uptake for COVID and the flu has been low, more children have been immunized against RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, so far this season than last year or the year prior. As of this week, about 13% more RSV monoclonal antibody doses had been administered compared to this time last year, according to state data.
It’s the third year RSV immunizations have been available for babies, pregnant people and older adults, and state health officials are optimistic about the ordering and distribution system after two years of initial growing pains.
Providers generally recommend giving the RSV antibody shot to babies between October and March, and the RSV vaccine to pregnant patients between September and January, per the CDC. Pharmacies, health providers, school-based clinics and other community health centers in the state are also offering updated COVID and flu vaccines.
“Now’s the time," said Bell, of Providence Swedish. It’s not too late.”
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