In the context of national politics, Washington is blue — almost as blue as they come. But, at the local level, this state contains multitudes.
President-elect Donald Trump has gained ground in 22 counties in the 2024 election, compared with his performance in 2020, based on votes counted as of Wednesday (more votes are being tallied).
At the same time, the Republican standard-bearer has lost ground in 16 counties and is treading water in Washington’s most populous area, taking the same vote share in King County as during the last presidential contest.
No one knows exactly why Trump made inroads in some parts of Washington, rather than others. But the results hint at some interesting dynamics.
The once-and-future president made significant gains in conservative Eastern Washington counties like Yakima, Franklin and Grant, mirroring a national trend that saw Trump go from strong to stronger in rural areas.
“We are red,” said Deanna Martinez, a city council member in Moses Lake who chairs the moderate Mainstream Republicans of Washington. “That doesn’t mean we don’t have Democrats here, but they’re not as active.”
Perhaps more surprisingly, Trump also may end up adding a bit of support west of the Cascades in Snohomish and Pierce counties. They backed Harris this year but not by quite as much as they backed President Joe Biden in 2020, assuming Wednesday’s results hold as the last votes are counted.
“I think people in my district were concerned with kitchen table issues and affordability,” said state Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen, a Republican from Puyallup who made a “hard choice” to vote for Trump despite some qualms.
Meanwhile, some areas appear to be moving in the opposite direction, especially on the Olympic Peninsula and in Southwest Washington.
Trump lost support in every county touching the Pacific Ocean — Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor and Pacific, the last of which may flip this year from red to blue. Trump slipped in nearby Wahkiakum and Mason counties, too.
Although Grays Harbor and Pacific counties were once reliably Democratic, they went Republican starting in 2016. Now the tides may be turning again.
“It’s very interesting,” said Adam Bernbaum, a Clallam County Democrat on track to win a vacant state House seat in Tuesday’s election. “I’d like to take a look at the demographic changes over the same time.”
Harris may have benefitted on the Olympic Peninsula from liberal Seattle area retirees moving in, effective economic messaging by local Dems and concerns about right-wing attacks on abortion rights, Bernbaum said.
Nationally, analysts believe the GOP is becoming younger and more diverse, Bernbaum noted. Maybe that helps explain why Trump’s support slid on the Peninsula, rather than in urbanizing Snohomish and Pierce.
“The median age in Jefferson and Clallam is quite old,” Bernbaum said.
The median ages in Snohomish and Pierce are 38 and 39, according to census data. In Jefferson and Clallam, they’re 59 and 52.
Martinez thinks the GOP is attracting an increasing number of Latino voters in Washington, like Trump has done elsewhere in the country — while he pledges mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
That’s partly because many Latino voters “align with conservative values, which are Republican values,” Martinez said. On the other hand, she’s worried about aspects of Trump’s second term. She didn’t vote for him.
“One concern I have is the deportations. We need a workforce,” Martinez said in a phone call from agricultural Grant County, also mentioning families with some members born in the U.S. and others not. “It’s absolutely complicated.”
