Research Models: ‘Most Likely Scenario’ Shows No New COVID-19 Surge in U.S. This Winter Research Models


Will the oncoming winter mean yet another COVID-19 surge in the U.S.?

A team of researchers from more than a dozen universities and laboratories doesn’t think so, Penn State News reports. In fact, the team’s most recent models suggest “the worst of the pandemic may finally be over.”

This projection is the “most likely scenario” produced by the group’s COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, based chiefly on children being approved for the COVID-19 vaccines and the likelihood that a new, “superspreading variant” will not emerge in the short term.

Check out the COVID-19 Modeling Hub to see the various projections.

The “Hub” utilizes 30 forecasting models to figure out how the pandemic probably will evolve over the next six months.

“Importantly, the most likely scenario does not project a winter surge,” Katriona Shea, a biology professor at Penn State University, told the Penn State News.

That said, the researchers add that COVID-19′s impact over the winter will not be uniform across the U.S. and that its projections could change if “unexpected things happen.”

In September, Oregon had the second-deadliest month since the pandemic began in early 2020, with 498 reported COVID-19 deaths in the state.

About 67% of Oregonians have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.