Let’s not dance around the issue: Washington is headed straight for a rough and dry summer.
The state is entering its fourth severe drought in a row, something that hasn’t happened since our climate records began. And that lack of water is going to bleed into virtually every aspect of life in the Pacific Northwest.
The state currently sits at about half its normal snowpack level. Sure there’s some time left in the season to recover but — this being our third-warmest winter on record — chances are the snowpack is only going to melt even more, further depleting our natural water reserves
Now, don’t panic. But do take this seriously.
Precisely how much of the pain you’ll feel depends largely on where you live. Over the past three years you’ve probably felt a bit of the sting already, maybe in higher electric rates or more expensive produce, even if you didn’t fully understand why. Or maybe the squeeze blended together with the country’s many other economic woes.
Get used to this, state officials and climatologists say, these more common and more severe drought years are our new normal.
“This is no longer about climate projections,” said Caroline Mellor, drought coordinator for Washington’s Department of Ecology. “We are now living in these projections.”
So let’s dive into the basics of why Washington is headed into yet another drought and a few ways that might touch home for you.
What do you mean drought?
This is the wet season, you’re probably thinking. And after all this rain and snow, how the heck can our water supply already be so low? And why do we need snowpack anyway?
Fair questions, astute reader. The short answer is that snowpack across Washington’s higher elevations acts as a series of natural reservoirs. Combined, they hold far more water than our human-made ones.
As the planet warms, more of our winter precipitation tends to fall as rain rather than snow. And that rain is falling in extreme bursts, like the December atmospheric rivers that flooded much of Western Washington, Mellor noted.
Problem is, we can’t capture all that rain as it falls. We don’t have the capacity, is how they phrase it in the business. Most of our reservoirs aren’t that large and there aren’t that many of them.
Typically we rely on snowpack melting into the summer months to supplement our water supply as we draw down on reserves. But without that snowpack, even if our reservoirs fill earlier in the year, our cities, towns, farms and industries (not to mention the environment) must get by with less water when they all need it the most.
These days we can expect snowpack droughts four years out of every decade, climatologists say. And the warmer temperatures mean that whatever snowpack does accumulate tends to melt earlier than normal.
So what?
Well, that means a couple of different things. First, it means dead fish. Salmon, trout and other species suffer during low stream flows and from abnormally high temperatures when rivers and streams run drier than normal. That problem ripples throughout the food chain.
Drought will also heighten wildfire risk. Grass, shrubs and trees might be growing now but they’ll soon dry up and die, waiting for the right conditions to burst into flames. This means literal fire danger for hikers, homes and entire cities this summer but also poor air quality (perhaps dangerously so) for the broader region. Don’t forget that land or mudslides often follow these major wildfires.
This summer is expected to be especially hot and dry, too, Mellor pointed out. El Niño conditions are moving in from the tropics.
Communities across the state could see voluntary or mandatory water restrictions, depending on where you live and your source of water. This also means state officials could turn off the spigots for entire regions like they did last year with the Yakima River Basin, which cut water supply for farms, businesses, even entire towns.
It’s too early to say whether any of that is likely, Mellor said. There are too many variables. But at the moment, the state is worse off right now than it was at the same time in the previous water year (which begins Oct. 1).
“Yesterday, statewide snowpack was at 54%,” Mellor said. “Last year, it was 68%.”
Increasingly, it appears state officials are likely to declare yet another severe drought emergency, which would unlock some $3 million in emergency aid to local governments.
How’s our hydropower doing?
This might be a little on the nose but poor water supply also means poor hydropower generation. And at the moment, we have mixed news from Seattle City Light.
The good news is that over the last three years the utility has been able to build back its emergency reserve fund, so next month City Light officials anticipate repealing a 4% surcharge for customers, which amounted to an extra $9 each month for typical residential customers.
The bad news is that snowpack continues to underperform year after year, repeating the cycle that led to the surcharge in the first place.
For an unprecedented three years in a row, City Light failed to fill up its largest hydropower reservoir, Ross Lake. Siobhan Doherty, the utility’s power supply officer, said that whether it will fill this year remains to be seen but they’re below normal snowpack levels so far this year.
When water’s short, City Light must buy power off the market at a higher price. During the drought of 2023, this forced the utility to burn through $70 million in emergency reserve funds in a matter of months.
At the same time, hotter and drier summers increase energy demand, Doherty said. So hydropower is slumping when the utility’s nearly half-million customers need it most.
Not only could the surcharge cycle repeat in the years ahead, but the utility must also build 1,700 megawatts of new generation over the next decade to meet increasing demand, Doherty said. That will cost money too and likely raise rates.
What about farmers?
Among the people bracing for the worst this year are Washington’s farmers.
Water will be so short this year that the Roza Irrigation District in the Yakima River Basin will start its growing season by turning the water off entirely for at least two weeks, district director Scott Revell said. The district covers 72,000 acres and some of Washington’s most fertile lands.
And when the district turns farmers’ faucets back on, Revell said, they’ll have to impose severe restrictions until they run out entirely in the fall. Currently, the district anticipates receiving well under half its normal water supply, he said. Perhaps as little as 31%.
All this will squeeze farmers out of the market entirely and cut into crop production quality and quantity, Revell said. Added stress is coming from the United States’ war in Iran, which is skyrocketing both the price of fuel and fertilizer. Not to mention other market forces like low crop prices and the high cost of labor, he said.
All bad news, Revell acknowledges.
“It is what it is,” he said.
All of these pain points for the many farmers in the Yakima River Basin, and all the others who support their work, will ripple across the region, impacting the price, availability and quality of a wide variety of fruits and vegetables. You’ll likely see and feel the consequences in the grocery store.
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