SKAGIT RIVER — As unrelenting rains fell Wednesday morning across Western Washington, with a forecast for much more in the hours ahead, Mount Vernon Mayor Peter Donovan braced for the worst.
A more severe flood than any other in recent memory could inundate the region if forecasts hold. Even as crews set up a downtown floodwall along the banks of the Skagit River, meteorologists predict the waters could climb over the barrier.
“We are currently preparing for what appears to be a potentially worst-case scenario, which is a massive flood event for Skagit County,” Donovan said.
The city began evacuating some neighborhoods Wednesday evening. By night, county officials had ordered GO NOW" evacuations for the entire 100-year floodplain of the Skagit River valley — the county's main population center.
"LEVEL 3 – GO! ALL RESIDENTS LIVING WITHIN THE 100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN SHOULD EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT WAIT, read the alert from Skagit County officials.
The National Weather Service warned of “catastrophic” flooding along the Skagit and Snohomish rivers, with a high risk of levees being topped.
Robert Ezelle, the director of the Washington Military Department’s Emergency Management Division, called the situation “dangerous, complex and rapidly evolving,” during a news conference alongside Gov. Bob Ferguson.
He said the state was preparing to evacuate about 75,000 people who live along the Skagit. About 100,000 people were expected to be evacuated statewide.
“We anticipate levees, not just on the Skagit River, but on many others, being overtopped,” Ezelle said.
The Skagit rose rapidly to major flood stage miles upstream in Concrete on Wednesday night, where it was expected to reach an all-time high by 5 a.m. Thursday, cresting 2 feet above the old record by 10 a.m., then receding.
In Mount Vernon, the Skagit was expected to hit a record height by Thursday evening, cresting about 9 feet above major flood stage Friday morning.
This week, people across Western Washington — in Skagit, Snohomish, Pierce and Lewis counties — have been fleeing their homes and businesses due to flooding. Emergency workers have been rushing to rescue those trapped in their trailer homes and vehicles.
This atmospheric river not only presents a slew of immediate dangers, but it underscores a growing risk for our region. Major floods are becoming more severe and expected to hit more frequently. And we, as a region, state and country are not prepared for the damage to come, hydrologists, climatologists and emergency managers warn.
Looking out the window from their home along Highway 20, east of Mount Vernon near Lyman, Micah McFarland and his roommates awoke early Wednesday to a phone alert telling them to evacuate. A pond was forming in the front yard but he decided to head to work anyway.
McFarland returned home before 11 a.m. and saw rising waters pouring into the yard. He and his roommates packed their belongings and headed to a friend’s house on higher ground.
“We’ve seen flooding,” McFarland said. “Not like this. It’s never been this bad before.”
The worst is yet to come.
Changed floodplains
Floods have always been a fact of life in the Skagit River basin. We have records of them dating back centuries. But they looked different then.
The Skagit, and rivers like it, used to flow as a series of braided waterways, said Greg Hood, an ecologist for the Skagit River System Cooperative. When they overflowed, water rushed into floodplains along their banks and stayed there for weeks or months.
These floodplains offered crucial habitat for fish, birds and mammals alike. They also relieved much of the water pressure downstream, Hood said. The pattern formed a crucial portion of the region’s ecosystem.
But over the past century, as European settlers dug into the area, we’ve guarded our communities against floodwaters with pieces of infrastructure like levees, Hood said. This turned the diverse braid of waterways into a single, condensed waterway, diminishing the ecosystem of the floodplain.
Hood estimates the Skagit River basin has lost at least half its floodplain area, if not more. The river itself flows more vigorously when the water runs high.
Think of a garden hose with water softly pouring out of the nozzle, Hood said. Put your thumb over the spout and you transform that slow stream into a jet.
Behind these levees, we’ve built cities, homes, businesses and farms.
More, stronger floods
Not only have we grown our communities around these rivers, but we’ve created a new problem through the continued burning of fossil fuels. As our atmosphere warms, more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.
Rather than sitting comfortably on our mountaintops and melting gradually in the springtime, all this new rainfall is instead rushing downstream, said Alan Hamlet, a former Seattle resident and scientist, who now works as an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Notre Dame.
The warming means our snowline is creeping farther up the mountains, expanding the overall area of the Skagit River basin. More surface area means more water to be captured when it rains. The effects are compounded. A bigger, stronger river means bigger, stronger floods, Hamlet said.
As our atmosphere continues to warm, these phenomena are expected to build.
In the business, floods can be ranked by a sense of time. A 100-year flood is one that’s so large, severe and rare that it’s only expected to strike once a century.
Over time, climate change means a traditional 100-year flood will happen more often, said Washington State Climatologist Guillaume Mauger. In the decades ahead we’re likely to see this type of destruction every 20 or 25 years.
Within this century, these extreme floods could strike faster than communities could recover from the last one, he said.
Bracing for the deluge
Mount Vernon Public Works staff hoisted metal stands and slats on Wednesday, assembling the city’s floodwall to stave off water as high as their lampposts. But whether water will creep over top the wall, or whether the artificial structure can bear the force of a swollen river for days on end, remains to be seen.
Not too far away, in a union office alongside the river, Lucy Madrigal fielded calls from members of Familias Unidas por la Justicia. Most came from Skagit County farmworkers who needed flood alerts translated from English. Some wanted guidance or needed hotel reservations so they could stay out of the floodplain. Their union is a trusted source of information in times like these.
Community to Community Founder Rosalinda Guillen said she’s concerned about members missing paychecks because of the flooding. For years, she said, the union has fought for hazard pay to counterbalance these increasingly common disasters.
All the while, Rikki Powell was preparing for her birthday on Thursday. As a present, she and her husband got a few hundred sandbags stacked outside her business, a burger joint called The Net.
Travis and his crews from Boulder Creek construction sandbagged around the restaurant and set off to deliver pallets of sandbags around the community Wednesday afternoon.
Growing up on the west side of Mount Vernon, Travis Powell said his family has weathered a few floods: in the 1990s, early 2000s and in 2021. Now, same as always, people are rallying around to help their neighbors.
Sometimes, Travis Powell said, the worst moments bring out the best in people.
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