Preparation and readiness dominated the conversation during Lewis County’s annual flood meeting Thursday morning, while forecasters said predictions of a drier winter don’t assure the county will be spared from flooding.
The event, held at Jester’s Auto Museum in Chehalis, brought together elected officials, law enforcement, emergency services, real estate agents, engineers, insurance agents, the National Weather Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to prepare for the upcoming flood season.
“I’m so happy to see our partners here,” said Ross McDowell, deputy director of emergency management for Lewis County. “We had a lot of our partners show up today, which is fantastic.”
While the meeting is a yearly opportunity for flood officials to prepare for the upcoming onslaught of rain, this year’s meeting included an added emphasis on flood insurance.
What does the upcoming flood season look like?
In its latest models, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicted an El Niño winter. The weather pattern is associated with warmer and drier conditions, though large storms can still occur.
Brent Bower, a hydrologist at the NWS, said there’s a “100% chance” that El Niño will exist through the end of the year.
“That’s not actually a typical probability. They are often much smaller than that,” Bower said, adding there’s currently a moderate El Niño in effect. “But 100%, we don’t see that very often.”
When the calendar flips to the new year, the weather pattern is unlikely to change significantly, with models showing a 95% chance of the pattern lasting from January through March and potentially beyond. Models show the winter has a 71% chance of a strong El Niño, which Bower said “does not happen super often.”
The strength of El Niño does not equate to the strength of potential storms but instead refers to how strongly the pattern is locked into place.
The region will likely see “above normal temperatures” and “drier than normal precipitation” through the end of the winter.
“As far as rainfall and flooding, we’re expecting lower than normal precipitation,” Bower said.
But that doesn’t mean Lewis County is out of the woods.
“That in no way means we won’t get a couple of really powerful storms in a row and still have the potential for flooding,” Bower said. “So we always have, every year, the potential for flooding because those storms are what … causes them, and will not be absent, even in a dry year.”
Up in the mountains, the snowpack will likely be smaller than normal while Bower said the drier and warmer weather “leaves us with fewer chances for lowland snow.”
“That doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen,” he said.
How to prepare for a flood
McDowell said with an increasing population, it’s important for newer residents to get familiar with their surroundings.
“We have a lot of new people that are moving into the area. We have a lot of new building going on,” McDowell said. “Talk to people that are your neighbors. Ask them, if you’re new, ‘Hey, do we get any water here? What does it do?’”
McDowell said it’s important to know how water pools around your residence, and what conditions of nearby rivers are during storms.
“That’s your best way to get any kind of answer,” McDowell said. “We can tell somebody that it gets up to 19 feet, but they have no clue what 19 feet looks like. But their neighbors do since they were there.”
To stay informed in a flood, McDowell said Centralia residents should look for information from the Centralia Police Department. Outside of the county, Lewis County Emergency Management serves as a “conduit” for assistance. Emergency Management can be contacted at 360-740-1151 or dem@lewiscountywa.gov.
During an emergency, McDowell said first responders are “going to be busy” and that it’s important for residents to “set themselves up for surviving.”
“If you have a 72-hour kit, it gives you enough stuff that you can have so that you don’t need to call anyone for 72 hours,” McDowell said. “You can survive on your own.”
The kit should include a plan, important papers, food and other necessities.
The county prepares for the upcoming flood
Lewis County was represented at the meeting by Commissioner Scott Brummer and new County Manager Ryan Barrett, who recommended residents sign up for the Lewis County Alert System.
The free service allows residents to sign up for text, email and phone alerts for updates on police, fire, severe weather, health and safety situations. To register, residents can go to lewiscountywa.gov/departments/emergency-management/lewis-county-alert/. The site also includes information on what to pack in an emergency kit, and trackers that monitor the current water level of local rivers.
During his remarks, Brummer said it’s important to be aware, which assists the limited number of emergency services when resources are stretched thin.
“The best way I can think of to help them out is to not get in that situation in the first place,” Brummer said.
‘Be aware, be prepared’
Scott Boettcher with the Chehalis River Flood Authority said the “surprise” of the 2007 flood should be a reminder to always be alert.
“The more aware you are of where you’re living and the flood risk, the better prepared you can be,” Boettcher said. “Decision-making in panic mode is not good decision-making.”
The Dec. 3, 2007 storm, which dropped 14 to 20 inches of rain, caused more than $500 million in flood damage to Pe Ell, Boistfort, Doty, Adna, Chehalis and Centralia. At its crest, the Chehalis River was 10 feet over flood stage at Mellen Street. The flood occurred after a "super storm" that slammed much of Western Washington.
In the first 24 hours of their response, Lewis County Dispatch received over 1,400 emergency calls.
Systems have been implemented since then to prevent a similar surprise storm, which includes a Doppler radar on the Washington coast.
"The 2007 surprise won't happen again today," Boettcher said. "We have tools that enable people to not be surprised."
Boettcher recommended residents go to chehalis.onerain.com for flood maps, weather forecasts and road closures.
“We want to be a front door for people who don’t know where the front door is,” he said.
Stay informed on home insurance
Chris Foresrping, a local insurance agent, described the rush of homeowners who approach him before a flood.
“My office blows up, probably about four days before a flood, ‘hey I need flood insurance,’” Forespring said. “And I’m the guy that says ‘well, you should have taken it out 30 days ago’ … if you think you’re going to take it out right before there’s an imminent flood, it’s not going to happen. Thirty days is generally the time that we wait to get approved and through.”
Forespring said when submitting applications to FEMA, the two required documents are the flood zone and the elevation certificate. On older homes, an elevation certificate could be a challenge, and can often require hiring a contractor, which could further delay the process.
FEMA flood insurance will cover a maximum of $250,000 of building coverage and $100,000 content coverage in the event of flood. Forespring recommended that residents explore potentially securing private insurance to cover losses that exceed these amounts.
“$250,000 is not going to cover a $750,000 home,” he said.
