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Maybe no one has felt the political hurt Donald Trump has inflicted on local Republicans more than Chad Magendanz.
A decade ago, Magendanz, a Republican, was happily serving the King County Eastside as a state legislator. It seemed stable enough — in 2014, he won reelection in his 5th Legislative District of Issaquah and Maple Valley by a whopping 18 percentage points.
That’s right — a Republican won in King County by a landslide. He wasn’t the only one, either.
But then Trump came down that golden escalator. The MAGA action that transformed the national GOP had an equal and opposite reaction here, almost totally washing Republicans out of King County.
“Nothing could be better news for local Republicans than that Trump will be gone in four years,” Magendanz told me last winter, after losing a comeback bid.
A high school computer science teacher, Magendanz compiled data from last year’s election showing what a curse Trump has been for local GOP prospects. In his own district, for example, he outran Trump by 11 points — but still lost by four.
Yet here he is this summer, trying again. The unexpected death of Democratic state Sen. Bill Ramos has triggered a special, off-year election this fall. Magendanz is vying for the 5th District Senate seat against Democrat Victoria Hunt.
In a surprising twist, some businesses are betting that the GOP’s Trump curse might finally be played out.
A business group called Jobs PAC has poured $177,000 into the 5th District race, spending 10 times more than the two candidates combined. The candidates are both safe to get through the August primary, so that level of outside spending is unusual, especially so early.
The businesses include Chevron, Koch Industries, T-Mobile and other corporate associations upset about the Democrat-led state Legislature’s recent votes to hike taxes. Almost all the money — $161,000 — has gone to mailers and digital ads attacking the Democrat, Hunt. About $16,000 was spent on a mailer supporting Magendanz.
The heavy investment shows they think the district is in play. The primary is an early test of that theory. No Republican has won there since 2016.
“People are very frustrated with the lack of fiscal restraint out of Olympia,” Magendanz said.
He acknowledged, however, that he’s likely to face headwinds due to you-know-who. The question is, will it be a little Donald squall, or a full-on anti-Trump typhoon?
“The MAGA thing is going to be a drag again, for sure,” he said. “Especially with Donald Trump in the news for every news cycle. I just need to have an environment that’s a little bit less anti-Trump than last time.”
In 2024, Magendanz impressively wooed about 10% of the voters who backed the Democrat Kamala Harris for president to cross party lines and also vote for his GOP candidacy. That wasn’t enough to win, though, as Trump got thrashed in the 5th District by 19 points.
But some polling shows that if anything, Trump is growing even more unpopular in these parts.
In the latest Civiqs survey of Trump’s approval rating in all 50 states, Washington is the sixth most hostile, with Trump at -32% here (33% approve of him while 65% do not.) The problem for Magendanz and other Republicans is that this is a worse number than at any time during Trump’s first presidency — which is when they lost all their King County seats in the first place.
The local climate has gotten so bleak for the GOP that it couldn’t field a candidate for another special election this year, a state Senate seat in Bellevue’s 48th District. No Republican in Seattle is typical, but the Eastside suburbs?
Democrats aren’t polling well either right now. Magendanz said he is trying to take advantage of that by laser-focusing on local issues such as taxes, budgets and schools. Too much Trump talk risks antagonizes the MAGA base and shifts to ground the Democrats want to play on, he said.
“I’m definitely trying to thread a needle here,” he laughed. “But this is a state office I’m running for, so it makes sense not to talk a lot about national politics.”
In Seattle, however, the candidates are vying for offices even more local, such as mayor or City Council. And they are talking about Trump nonstop.
Several have Trump-specific platforms, such as mayor candidate Katie Wilson’s call to Trump-proof Seattle. Others are calling for a Seattle firewall against Trump. While another, City Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, said “we must be prepared for an increase in people moving to our city” as they flee from Trump.
“The Trump regime is not just dangerous — it is metastasizing in real time,” warned one mayoral candidate, Joe Mallahan. “This moment demands an opposition that is bold, loud, moral, and defiant.”
Politics is like poker — the players give off tells for what cards they’re holding. It’s clear Democrats and their backers believe this fall will be yet another nationalized election, with only one issue that really matters. That's been a safe bet.
While area Republicans and their backers are wagering a longshot that politics might become a little bit local once again.
Ballots for the Aug. 5 primary are being mailed this week. It won’t crown any winners. But that big business money is right about one thing: The vote will be a huge early sign of who’s got the stronger hand.
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