Turn around. Don't drown.
The phrase was repeated several times at Jester’s Auto Museum and Events Center in Chehalis on Thursday as local officials warned of above average rainfall this fall and urged residents to stay informed and stay home if possible during floods.
Lewis County Emergency Management welcomed local first responders and community members to the annual Lewis County Flood Meeting Thursday morning.
A presentation from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shared that rainfall and flood risk was higher than normal this year while the Chehalis Basin Flood Authority urged residents to sign up for flood alerts and stay prepared for extreme floods.
The event also featured a surprise activity as everyone in the room participated in the worldwide “Great ShakeOut” event, a minute-long earthquake drill that is set for a different date each year and asks people all over the planet to take one minute to rehearse what they would do in the event of an earthquake.
Even with an earthquake drill, Reid Wolcott, warning coordination meteorologist with NOAA, stole the show as he informed local officials and first responders that flood risks would be higher this fall despite a “relatively weak” signal that means less certainty.
According to Wolcott, flood risks this year will be highest from November to January. That time period shows the most significant forecasting of above average rainfall in Lewis County and across the state. The following three-month period from January to March is also predicted to have slightly above average rainfall, but it is expected to be a decline from the predicted peak this fall.
“There is a signal that leans toward above-normal precipitation,” Wolcott said. “This is concerning because this is already our wettest and most floodprone time of year. So if you have above normal precipitation this year, it definitely increases our risk of flooding events here in Western Washington.”
Wolcott added that while overall flood risk is increased this fall, major flood events come from individual storms that cannot be predicted this far out. Increased rainfall does not necessarily predict a catastrophic flood event, nor does low rainfall rule one out.
“These climate predictions do have skill at predicting seasonal averages and totals, but again, signals are weak this year and it's really important to remember that most of the impacts that we see are associated with short duration storm systems,” Wolcott said. “It's really those individual storm systems that we can't forecast at this point in time that lead to our most significant impacts across Washington state and all of Lewis County.”
NOAA is currently monitoring an atmospheric river event expected to impact Western Washington between Oct. 22 and Oct. 27.
Outside flood predictions, the winter outlook shows drought conditions in Western Washington going away. Predictions also show Western Washington may come into next spring with a slightly above average snowpack.
Mid-winter indicators show increased chances of ice or snow compared with normal years and, significantly for the lower Chehalis Basin, weather patterns show an increased risk of coastal flooding.
After the main presentation on the seasonal outlook for flood and other weather events, Chehalis Basin Flood Authority staff member Scott Boettcher presented on the authority’s early flood warning system, urging first responders and residents alike to sign up and stay prepared.
The early flood warning system is used by emergency management and first responders, but it's also available to the public through the flood authority’s early warning emailing list and through a series of interactive maps available on the flood authority website. Those who sign up for the early warning email list will receive a flood warning email when water levels come within 2 feet of major flood levels. Interactive inundation maps can show where the water will reach a certain level so residents can understand when water might affect their homes or businesses.
“You’ve got an alarm, you've got time to move stuff from your basement up to your attic or you have time to move your animals or move your cars,” Boettcher said. “If you’ve got an alarm 1 to 2 feet before flood stage, you're not in full panic mode. If you wait for emergency management to come and tell you you’ve got to move now, you’re in panic mode, and those kinds of decisions in panic mode aren't as good as when you have plenty of time to plan.”
Basin residents can sign up for the email warning system or access interactive maps, rainfall records and other information on the flood authority website at https://chehalis.onerain.com/.
In addition to Boettcher and Wolcott, Lewis County Floodplain Manager Doyle Sanford and Lewis County Public Works Director Geoff Soderquist both spoke of infrastructure changes and impacts during flooding. Soderquist assured all in attendance that Lewis County Public Works has done routine inspections of bridges and culverts. He also added that public works would do its best to inform the public of road closures during flood season through the department's Facebook page.
Even so, he and Sanford urged the same caution as the rest of the speakers, in particular warning residents to stay home if possible during a flood, avoid driving on closed roads and never drive over a water-covered road. Water-covered roadways can at times hide washed out culverts and damaged bridges that may collapse when driven on during or after floods.
