Despite criticism from some elected officials, Lewis County continues to report COVID-19 cases only by commissioner districts, which split the sprawling county into three regions of equal population. Not breaking the data down by ZIP code means residents are largely in the dark regarding where the virus is spreading locally. But as frustration grows in rural communities, a look at neighboring counties’ data may provide more insight.
In recent months, Lewis County has witnessed a blossoming of anger and rebellion against statewide restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19, which has so far killed more than 300,000 Americans. Some have questioned why smaller towns, where virus spread is less evident, should have to comply with the same rules as larger, more densely populated areas.
After declaring that Mossyrock “will not recognize” Gov. Jay Inslee’s restrictions, Mayor Randall Sasser said that the isolated town of about 800 didn’t have any positive cases, and should therefore be exempt from restrictions. But he also expressed anger that the county won’t share the data to substantiate the claim.
“All we’re asking for is ZIP codes … if the data supported us shutting down, we wouldn’t be sitting here,” Sasser told The Chronicle. “In district 3, which is Commissioner (Gary) Stamper, it covers the whole east end of Lewis County. So when we look at that, where is it? Is it more toward Packwood? That’s more of a vacation spot for retirees. Or is it Morton? Or Randle? Nobody knows.”
Contrary to Sasser’s claim, Mossyrock has likely had residents test positive. In early fall, their school district paused in-person classes after a student contracted COVID-19 just one week into the school year. But it’s true that the level to which Mossyock is experiencing an outbreak is hard to gauge without the county confirming cases by zip code. In general, district 3 is underrepresented in the data, containing only 18.8 percent of the county’s COVID-19 cases, even though it represents about a third of the population. That percentage has increased in recent weeks.
In October, after pushback from some officials, public health officials joined several other counties in sharing cases by zip codes. But the county walked back the policy after a single day, with officials repeating concerns that the transparency could reveal sick residents’ identities and therefore violate patient privacy laws. The argument was articulated earlier this year when the county was reporting just a few cases per day. If that single case was linked to a zip code in a small enough community, the prosecuting attorney’s office said, it could be easy to identify who was infected.
But since November, the county has been seeing more than 100 cases each week. And electeds have continued requesting that public health release more data.
“If we know where it is, maybe we can take some precautions,” Stamper said in a November meeting. This month, Chehalis Mayor Dennis Dawes made the same request, saying the exclusion of zip codes creates more questions than answers.
Last week, Public Health Director J.P. Anderson suggested that increasing cases — which show little sign of slowing — could result in more data being released. Until then, data from Thurston, Cowlitz, Yakima, and Grays Harbor counties may shed some light on the question of whether the virus is spreading in small Lewis County towns.
The Data
The following numbers are based on estimated populations as well as individual counties’ reporting of cumulative COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Each county reports COVID-19 data differently, and many report cases before assigning them to a geographic location.
A good place to start is South Thurston County. The Chronicle often reports on lower Thurston County, since the line between Lewis County and places like Rochester seems arbitrary. The small town resembles rural Lewis County more than Thurston’s Olympia-area hub. That arbitrary line, however, also confers more specific data on the spread of COVID-19. Rochester’s zip code, 98579, is seeing slightly disproportionate levels of COVID-19. Consisting of about 4.4 percent of the county’s population, the zip code also contains about 5.5 percent of the county’s positive cases. So far, 198 cases have been confirmed in the zip code.
In zip codes that more closely resemble the population of Mossyrock’s area, there seems to be a proportionate number of cases. The two least-populated zip codes, 98589 (including Tenino) and 98576 (including Rainier) represent 2.5 percent and 1.6 percent of the population, and 1.9 percent and 2.0 percent of the county’s COVID cases, respectively. Rainier’s zip code is about twice as populated as Mossyrock’s, and has 74 confirmed cases. While Bucoda resembles Mossyrock to a greater extent, geographically and population-wise, its zip code is split between counties, making the data less clear.
To the South, in Cowlitz County, three zip codes with small populations are listed as having somewhere between 0-9 cases, making it difficult to gauge if they are over- or underrepresented in the data. Of the zip codes with definitive numbers, the two least populated are 98649 (Toutle), with .89 percent of the population and .87 percent of the county’s positive cases, and 98645 (Silver Lake), with 1.30 percent of the population and .78 percent of the county’s positive cases.
Bordering East Lewis County is Yakima County, where officials report cases by city. Almost all the cities included in the data represent a tiny fraction of the county’s population, with most people clustered in the city of Yakima, which is fairing significantly better than its neighbors. With 76.7 percent of the county’s residents, Yakima only has 41.9 percent of the county’s positive cases. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of smaller surrounding cities — 18 out of 19 — are reported to have slightly higher levels of COVID-19 than their population would suggest.
But in Grays Harbor County, the opposite seems to be true. The most populated zip code, 98520 (including Aberdeen and Cosmopolis) is overrepresented, with 31.73 percent of the population and 49.80 percent of cases. Most zip codes representing less than 5 percent of the county’s population are slightly underrepresented in their COVID-19 numbers.
Neighboring counties Pierce, Pacific, Wahkiakum, and Skamania Counties do not offer data by zip code.
