And here we finally are.
One crazy regular season of softball in the 2A Evergreen Conference is in the books. Seven weeks of non-stop chaos, plenty of upsets, tiebreakers, a false ending, an out-of-nowhere extra tiebreaker, and a true ending are in the rearview mirror, and it’s down to four EvCo teams, who will compete with five out of the 2A GSHL for the District 4 crown.
The trophy has all but lived in the northern half of the district in recent history (Chehalis, to be exact), but if this season has taught us anything, it’s that nothing we thought we knew previously is certain to hold in the future.
With that in mind, here’s a rundown of the four EvCo teams in the tournament (yes, including you, Aberdeen) with the reason they’re locks to win the whole thing — and why there’s no chance it’s going to happen.
No. 4 W.F. West
Why they’ll win: Take a look at W.F. West’s lineup and try to find the easy outs. Spoiler alert: you can’t. Lena Fragner brings more pop than the average leadoff hitter, but if it’s contact and speed and peskiness on the bases, Brielle Etter brings that in spades. Behind those come the heart of the beast. Avalon Myers has hit three home runs in her past four games. Staysha Fluetsch has had her spells as the most complete hitter in the order, and Savannah Hawkins might have the most pure power of the bunch. Past them, it doesn’t get a whole lot easier. W.F. West has won nine of the past 10 district titles, and they’ve got the bats to do it all again, for sure.
Why they won’t: I know you’re new to this situation, Bearcats, so I’ll explain. They call this a “pigtail game,” basically, you have to play an extra game to get into the real tournament.
Taking on the No. 5 team out of the GSHL might not be the biggest challenge, but if there’s one thing this W.F. West team has lacked at times this year, it’s consistency. The Bearcats have laid the occasional egg, and having to win four games to take the title instead of three gives them an extra chance to do so in the postseason.
No. 3 Centralia
Why they’ll win: Everyone loves the team of destiny. Centralia’s first squad to make the district tournament in half a decade started strong before faltering big-time, then came back at the last possible second to beat Tumwater and Rochester in the final week to squeak in. (And also jumped over the pigtail spot… yeah I only sort of get it, too.) The lineup has pop, and Hollynn Wakefield has taken on more and more of the load in the circle — though Peyton Smith still offers a great change of speeds if David Orr wants it. And more than anything, these Tigers aren’t playing scared of anybody.
Why they won’t: It’s been nearly two months since the last time Centralia has won three straight games against 2A opponents, and two of those foes will be watching the tournament from the stands. At the plate, Centralia will have to start its run by taking on R.A. Long’s Jadyn Terry, who led RAL to its No. 2 seed in the GSHL by striking out 55 batters in three straight wins. Get past her, and it’s a date with Aberdeen’s Lilly Camp.
No. 2 Tumwater
Why they’ll win: You want stuff in the circle? Look no further. Ella Ferguson threw every inning of Tumwaters state title run as a freshman last year and has returned with another brilliant campaign. Her ERA sits at 1.88, and opponents are hitting .179 against her while striking out over 12 times per seven innings. Any time No. 1 takes the ball for the T-Birds, they’re in the game. Tumwater is 9-1 this season when it scores five runs, because even a bit of offense is usually enough.
Why they won’t: On the other hand, that bit of offense has been hard to come by at times. The T-Birds have scored five runs in 10 games, but have been held under that threshold in nine. They’re 2-7 on those occasions. The runs are going to have to come from somewhere, and if they don’t, things will get real tough, especially since Tumwater’s second quarterfinal matchup would likely be either W.F. West or Ridgefield, two of the three teams that have tagged Ferguson for eight or more runs.
No. 1 Aberdeen
Why they’ll win: The Bobcats haven’t been completely above the chaos of the league, but they did enough to end up above it all, ending the season on the longest winning streak of any team in the league — all of four games. But Aberdeen has undoubtedly been the most consistent team in the EvCo, with no real bad losses or poor performances, and the bracket lines up so that W.F. West, Tumwater, and Ridgefield are all as far away from the Bobcats as possible.
Why they won’t: Aberdeen isn’t new to the district tournament like Centralia is, but the Bobcats might be getting a nosebleed with how much higher in the standings than usual they are. There are expectations in the Harbor now, and that’s something new to deal with. Speaking of the Tigers, Centralia has caught every EvCo opponent at least once, with the exception of Aberdeen, and oh look, they’d be playing for a third time this season in the semifinals.
