Prep Football Week 4 Preview: How Accurate Are Rankings?

Posted

For as long as I can remember, I’ve always paid attention to the Associated Press college football rankings. It’s always cool to see if my Cougars would be ranked and how high they would be ranked in comparison to other Pac-12 teams. This was especially of interest last year when WSU had quite a buzz about them with Luke Falk at the helm and the Cougars playing well for most of the season.

I always hoped I would get to vote in them one day so I could add my voice to the discussion of where I believed team’s would be ranked. I’ve always personally felt that Alabama is always given the benefit of the doubt and the people voting always seem to give the SEC the nod when it comes to ranking teams by conference.

Let me be clear though, rankings are by no means an exact science and there will be many opinions on who’s right and who’s wrong. For example, University of Central Florida was left out of the college football playoff while a 1-loss Alabama team made the playoff, and the Knights went on to beat the only team that defeated Alabama in Auburn in the Peach Bowl.

Alabama eventually went on to win the national title, even though UCF claims an undefeated national championship with shirts, a proclamation by the governor and even receiving rings claiming a national title.

Does UCF have a leg to stand on with this claim? For me, I believe so. The Knights didn’t lose a game and beat the only team that was able to defeat Alabama. The fact that UCF didn’t earn a spot in the playoff is ridiculous to me, because how can you not include a team that hasn’t lost a game all season in a playoff, regardless of conference?

This brings me to my main point in all of this. The recent AP prep football poll was released on Wednesday and I can’t help but scratch my head. Adna is on top and rightfully so, having a 3-0 record while beating three quality opponents. Tri-Cities Prep is No. 2, and I believe that is also correct since they are undefeated and have won in dominating fashion in their first three games. That was who I had at the top of my poll.

After that, it gets complicated. Napavine was ranked No. 3, Kalama No. 4 and Rainier No. 5. In my vote, I had Napavine at three, Rainier at four and Kalama at five. I put Napavine at three because they have two quality wins and their only loss was against Kalama, the defending state champion. I voted Rainier at four because they are undefeated and I saw them play decent against Toledo. Kalama was in the No. 5 slot because they are 1-2 and their losses are against two good teams.

It was hard for me to put a team above another team that it had lost to, but with Kalama having two losses against two 2B opponents, I wanted to put them in the top 5 but didn’t feel they had done enough for me to rank them above Napavine, even with a head-to-head win. The Chinooks didn’t blow out Napavine and could have won the game against Adna had it not been for Alex Dyer not playing in the second half, but as it stands, they sit at 1-2 and No. 5 in my eyes.

After five, I had Asotin at six, Onalaska at seven, Morton-White Pass at eight, Northwest Christian (Colbert) at nine and Pe Ell-Willapa Valley at 10. If Onalaska defeats PWV this weekend, it will be hard not to rank them higher and vice versa for PWV defeating Onalaska. I don’t know much about Asotin and NW Christian, but I do know they Asotin won big and NW Christian lost to TCP.

The AP Poll was close to mine, with Asotin at six and Onalaska at seven. NW Christian was ranked No. 8, Toledo grabbed the No. 9 spot and Liberty (Spangle) is at No. 10. Toledo is a tough choice at No. 9. I can understand putting the Indians at nine, having lost to Napavine and Rainier, two top five teams, even though I may not agree with it. Toledo is a good team and has had a tough schedule to start the season.

Liberty at 10 is interesting, because they were blown out by Napavine in the opener and lost to a 1-2 Chewelah team. The Lancers won 27-0 over Irrigon for their first win of the season. I don’t feel the Lancers or Indians are worthy of the ranking, considering there are many other teams with better records, despite what we may have assumed would happen at the beginning of the season.

All of this is pure speculation at this point only three weeks into the season. Plus, what do I know? I’m tied for last in Grid Picks, so on with the preview.



2A/1A

The Bearcats are fresh off a win against Hudson’s Bay and head south this week to take on Washougal. The Panthers are 1-2 this season with losses to Prairie and Woodland, but Washougal does have a win in their opener against Hudson’s Bay 16-13.

Centralia is still seeking their first win of the season as they are also hitting I-5 South to face Fort Vancouver. The Trappers are 0-3 this season and have yet to score a point against Seton Catholic, Ridgefield and Mark Morris. The Tigers are coming off a 42-14 loss to Sehome at Tiger Stadium last Friday.

Rochester will try to improve to .500 before EvCo games start when they face Evergreen in Vancouver. The Plainsmen recorded their lone win against Centralia 47-22 in Week 2 but are coming off a 46-3 loss to Lakewood last week.

Tenino is hoping to have their first win on homecoming weekend as Seton Catholic comes to town to play on the black turf. Tenino is coming off a 56-12 loss to the Rockets in Castle Rock last week. The Beavers have lost their only home game of the season so far, 35-12 against King’s Way Christian in Week 2. Seton Catholic is 2-1 so far and is coming off a 66-0 win over Riverside, Ore., last Friday. The Cougars defeated Fort Vancouver 40-0 in Week 1 before falling to Charles Wright Academy 7-6 in Week 2.

2B

There are three intra-Lewis County games this week, with the top ranked Pirates traveling to Toledo to take on the Indians. Adna is coming off a 27-17 win over Kalama in Adna, with the Pirates coming from behind in the second half to earn a win over the then top ranked Chinooks. Toledo is coming off a 20-17 loss to Napavine in Toledo. The Indians are 1-2 after a Week 2 loss to Rainier on the road.

In Onalaska, the Loggers will try to remain undefeated as the Pe Ell-Willapa Valley Titans come to town. PWV is coming off a close victory against Raymond last week, 28-24, with Sam Western intercepting a pass in the end zone as time expired to preserve the win. Onalaska defeated Wahkiakum 32-27 last week in Cathlamet, with the 27 points put up by the Mules the first points of the season given up by Mazen Saade’s squad.

The final of the intra-Lewis County battles takes place in Winlock, where the 1-2 Cardinals will try to knock off Morton-White Pass from the ranks of the undefeated. The T-Wolves topped Toutle Lake 34-0 last week after defeating Neah Bay and Raymond in the first two weeks. Winlock has lost two in a row after falling to Life Christian Academy 41-21. After an opening 21-6 win over North Beach, the Cardinals fell to South Bend on the road, 32-14, in Week 2.

Napavine is back at home after two weeks on the road to host Wahkiakum. The Mules lost a close game to Onalaska last week while Napavine is coming off a come from behind win against Toledo in Week 3.

Mossyrock is 2-1 and heads to Life Christian on Saturday to face the Eagles. The Vikings defeated North Beach 34-0 in Week 3 to bounce back from a loss in the helmet game against Onalaska in Week 2.