“The Guns of August,” a book by Barbara Tuchman, was published in 1962 and won the Pulitzer Prize for history in 1963. It chronicles the catastrophic miscalculations made by European leaders in the runup to the outbreak of World War I in August 1914.
In his second year in office, President John F. Kennedy was so impressed by the book and its history lesson that he made it required reading for his staff and cabinet members. In October 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy framed virtually every action he took through what he learned about the mistakes of 1914. He went so far as to personally instruct U.S. Navy captains during the blockade about what words to say when boarding intercepted ships.
He called in a Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin to relay messages to Moscow as to his intentions. The goal was to avoid any ambiguity and thereby decrease the chance that the Soviets would miscalculate and the world would blunder into nuclear war. He was successful. After the crisis subsided, Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev agreed to set up a “hotline” for direct communication between Moscow and Washington. When Kremlin archives were opened after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was revealed just how close the world came to nuclear annihilation.
From the accounts of people who have spoken to both North Korea and American officials, they have the distinct impression that neither side has a clue what the other is really thinking.
Trump may think he is being wily, but this is the road to miscalculation and accidental nuclear war.
Many Americans who have experience in Korean affairs such as former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Christopher Hill believe that North Korea is still out to dominate the Korean Peninsula and the goal of their nuclear program is survival of their regime and to drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea.
As with Russia and China, Trump plays right into their hands.
His careless, belligerent rhetoric about North Korea and the fact that after a year he has yet to appoint an ambassador to South Korea has convinced many South Koreans that their safety and security is an afterthought to him. Vladimir Putin has flooded North Korea with so much oil he has driven down the price there.
Metropolitan Seoul, South Korea, has a population of 25 million and is within range of conventional artillery 25 miles across the border in North Korea. This is mobile and concealed artillery which likely has shells tipped with chemical and biological toxins. We have 26,000 troops within its range, and our military admits we have no real way of effectively stopping that.
We contained the Soviet Union for 50 years, and only the intellectually lifeless would believe we and our allies can't contain North Korea. Kim Jong Un is an eccentric and brutal despot, but there is no evidence he is suicidal.
It is probably asking too much for Donald Trump to read a book. He suffers from the most severe learning disability known to humans.
It is fairly common among adolescents.
He thinks he already knows everything.
Marty Ansley
Cinebar
