Dozens of local agencies attended the annual pre-flood preparation meeting on Thursday morning at the Veterans Memorial Museum in Chehalis.
Mitch Guthrie, from the Lewis County Information Technology Department, goes over the county's river reading web page during the annual pre-flood preparation meeting on Thursday morning at the Veterans Memorial Museum in Chehalis.
Lewis County IT Director, Steve Wohld, talks about the county's expanded river reading web page during the annual pre-flood preparation meeting on Thursday morning at the Veterans Memorial Museum in Chehalis.
Emergency responders, elected officials and staff from across Lewis County gathered Thursday morning for the 2016 Annual Flood Meeting in advance of what could prove to be a very wet winter.
The meeting, held at the Veterans Memorial Museum in Chehalis, provided storm mitigation project updates and projections for this year’s storm season.
Central to these projections was a presentation by Ted Buehner, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“From our perspective, we’re either going to have a mild, moderate La Nina or neutral [weather system],” he said.
In meteorological terms, this seemingly benign statement becomes more concerning.
La Nina systems, he said, generally blow warm, wet air near the equator, but have a chance of swinging dramatically north and bringing cold air down from Alaska and Canada into the Pacific Northwest.
Buehner said there is currently a 60 percent chance for an La Nina this winter, and a 40 percent chance of a neutral season.
La Nina conditions also generally mean wet, stormy winters, Buehner said.
Neutral systems, neither La Nina or El Nino, have coincided with some of the more severe events in Western Washington.
Notably, the 2008 “Snowmageddon,” as well as the 2008-2009 floods, occurred during neutral conditions.
Not all neutral system winters cause devastation, said Brent Bower, a senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service.
“It’s not guaranteed,” he said.
The last neutral winter was the 2013-14 season, which did not see major flooding throughout Lewis County like the 2009 floods.
Even with favorable conditions, however, Bower said flooding is always a concern.
“In Western Washington, we’re just vulnerable to flooding in any weather,” he said.
Buehner said the chances of having a neutral system coupled with a minor La Nina system are just under 50 percent annually.
The National Weather Service is predicting a wetter than average season through December, with increased rainfall and colder temperatures from January through March.
County Emergency Management Manager Steve Mansfield laid out damage figures for last year’s two largest storm events.
The first, which occurred from Nov. 12 through 21, caused nearly $584,000 in damage to public infrastructure.
A second event from Dec. 8 through Dec. 10 saw flooding on the Cowlitz River and caused around $3.5 million in damage to public infrastructure, and 29 residential claims totaling $498,684.
Both of these events received presidential disaster declarations, allowing the Federal Emergency Management Agency to step in and reimburse governments for some of the damages.
County Public Works Director Erik Martin said efforts to repair and reinforce riversides and infrastructure has cost more than $992,090, with the federal government footing more than $868,000 of that bill.
County IT Director Steve Wohld also unveiled a new flood monitoring system on the county website that was designed to be easier to understand and more visual. Residents can also sign up for Lewis County Alerts at www.lewiscountywa.gov.
